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In this video, we discuss sports betting math and the key mathematical formulas that sports bettors need to know to be successful. The most common sports betting mathematical formulas are determining fair win percentage and expected value. These are the key concepts in sharp sports betting strategies. It doesn’t matter if you are betting on MLB, NFL or any other sport. Knowing how to remove vig from sportsbook odds and calculate expected value is essential.
We examine two NFL betting opportunities that are arbitrage bets between Pinnacle and BetMGM sportsbook. We overview why Pinnacle is known to be the sharpest betting market in the world. They have low vig (or “juice”); they accept sharp action and even view themselves as “arbitrage friendly.” Any profitable NFL betting strategy will use math to determine fair win percentage and expected value for each betting opportunity.
Sportsbooks make money by charging the vig, or juice, which is typically 4%-5%. On sharp sportsbooks like Pinnacle, the vig is lower, as these are more efficient sports betting markets. Knowing which sportsbooks are sharp is critical to making money sports betting.
The OddsJam sportsbook odds API (https://oddsjam.com/api) powers multi-million dollar initiatives for businesses in the sports betting industry. We can power your use case! Pricing is flexible and a function of usage. Our odds API includes mainline markets, game props, player props and much more. We now include live odds as a part of our odds API offering.
Jack explains the best way to use your sportsbook free bets so you get optimal value from promotions and bonuses at legal sportsbooks.
Book mention:
Logic of Sports Betting: https://amzn.to/31zcTYE
#sportsbook #freeplay #promos
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Ok. So this method gives you better odds on getting the free bet by basically betting on the favorite to win and if he doesn’t then you don’t lose any money. It’s not guarantee
I am curious of betting both sides with free bets though to guarantee profit. The best I’ve found is a guarantee return of 50-60% of the free bet. What do the stakes needs to be to guarantee the best return?
For some reason I'm getting Steve Buschemi vibes
My roommate and I both like to bet sports but only have one computer to use. For some reason it is the only one where the geolocation works. Do you think they will notice the one IP for two accounts, or even care since we bet at minimum levels?
COMPLETE WAFFEL
No
Yes, longshots do indeed win sometimes. There is no such thing as a "SURE THING"…. I find sport bets for my free bets on +300 and higher…. Nice breakdown on EV.
the example at 6:21 doesn't make sense. If you bet the underdog at +200 or 2.0 in decimals with free bet you would only get back what you bet.
So you bet $100 in free bet. You get $100 back not $200. The bet amount itself is lost unless you're dealing with different sportsbook than I am. In my case it seems like the free bet gets lost whenever you bet whether you win or lose
Wow. This is really cool stuff, I wish I'd have found this video and captain Jack much sooner, I already have all the new player bonus everywhere. But wow what a lot of fascinating content across here, can't wait to dig deeper. Great video!
My 2 best free bets that came to mind was putting a $3 free bet on Truexjr at 22-1 odds and winning $66 and a $74 free bet on Cindric at +135 odds and winning $100+
New subscriber, I tend use my free bets on nascar prop bets
Captain Jack, thank you! Does anything change if there are 3 individuals each doing the 1st time $600 free bet and we are going to chop the pot?
I prefer the partial "flip the script" method, wherein you guarantee a profit regardless of the outcome. If you have a +400 / -400 situation on the two sites, you just use the $100 free bet on the +400 underdog and you only bet $320 on the -400 favorite on the other site. This locks up 80% EV (in this case $80) no matter what the outcome is.
FanDuel promo bet 55 on any team to win the super bowl and win 5 free play for every game they win during the regular season. Took Tampa Bay as my team at 17-1 odds. So the week that they won against Carolina I had my 5 in free play in my account so what do I do? I love betting totals on soccer. USA vs Panama Monday night over 7.5 goals. Lol 6-2 finale 85-1 odds. Lol. Usa scored 4 goals with 10 minutes left in the game. Oh yeah and Tampa won the super bowl. Lol
May be a silly question, but might I bump up against wager limits if I want to flip the script with a $1,000 sign up bonus? Or will most online sites let me put $5k down on alt sides/totals?
Top notch as always captain
1 week into sports betting since VA just legalized it – I have two $50 free bets from MGM Sportsbook and I just want to pull the money out. Fine print does not have any restrictions on the odds I can place the money on. Should I just go for the best favorite I can find?
Great video. Sensible approach. Should you view the fanduel $1,000 refund bet the same way? (I haven’t dug into the details but at least one caveat is your refund will be in the form of “site credit”)
What about the sign up bonus that to withdraw you have to place multibet slip of 3 games n above and rollover of 5 times?
@captain Jack Andrews around 3:25 i would recommend mentioning something about not taking a line without a hook, because if you push on a free play you lose
If your getting plenty free bet,s you,re in trouble!!