This video explains the formula for expected value. Put simply, in order to win at sports betting you have to place bets using good value odds. The expected value calculation explained in this video will show you if your bet is good value . No bet is guaranteed to win, however placing bets with positive expected value will give you an edge and you will win at betting in the long term.
If you want to try the expected value calculator that I used in this video, then you can find a link to download it on my Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/KieMillett
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Video Link: https://youtu.be/kw3tcU_AhMg
Thumbnail photo by Abigail Keenan
Disclaimer: This video is made for informational purposes and is NOT financial advice
Video Rating: / 5
Here we are with the third in a series of how to bet on sports. This is when things heat up! We’re looking at the implied probabilities, implied odds and the expected value. This one is essential, in my mind, to understanding how to bet on sports.
If you’d like a copy of the Implied Calculator it’s over on Dropbox:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/uaac8f1c3k5rn73/Implied%20Calculator.xlsx?dl=0
And Google Drive:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1QXX0Djbt0aJtiksFvSpdC_BWgbPCCBou/view?usp=sharing
Video Rating: / 5
Please help with the spreadsheet
Good video good information
But its just waste of time
bookies are wolves and we are sheeple you can't out work them even if you do you'll be banned
So where there are 3 outcomes like soccer.. Which probability do you use for the draw part
Nice video
I'm currently betting on draws and would love your view on this type of. Betting
After using this equation, Barcelona still cut my ticket 😅
Example,100/ 2.20 =45.45, 100/3 = 33.33 ,100/3.20=30.76.
True odds 109.54 /45.45=2.41.
Question
When i calculate with your formula,i have 3 outcomes,and final number is 196.5.Is that value bet or no?
I'm just relieved that there are some smart kids out there, the future doesn't seem so bleak.
Fascinating stuff Kie! I feel you’ve explained a pretty complex subject very well—given that it’s complicated! For me, given what you’ve said here, is about whether or not I’m prepared to sit and analyse data on games until the blood vessels in my eyes turn a deep shade of purple. But I can see how important it is not to go with ‘emotion’, i.e. that gut instinct that, say, L’Pool or Man C. will thrash most teams they play so go with them or, vice versa, the bottom of the table teams losing most of the time (which they probably will based on past performance) over the course of the 38 matches they play..
There’s clearly more science to trading than most of us can get our heads around but thank you for taking the time to help the less arithmetical of us to at least get a grip on why it’s important to stay calm, focused and then trade with logic and not emotion. Great video. Thank you. 👍
top stuff! amazing explanation
Think I commented before on your vid I am mainly doing tennis trading under 2.5 strategy is one that I like very easy to understand and implement I did it on Man U v Leeds on Mon 4th 1st one I've done for ages only stayed in market for a bit as was doing screenshot to show someone about trading
Brilliant video, thank you. Don't bother with the background music, it distracts from what you're saying
great to use the expected value formula on this, but how do you calculate the probabilities of the outcomes is the real question in a sports bet.
after watching this video i feel like i will never win football bet ever… the probability and some shit he said
Fantastic video.
Great job !!!!!! Super. Someone finally made this video
Now i have gone for a subscriber to a patron member 🙂
Good vid, and something very important to consider before placing a bet.
What a fantastic video, you have earned a subscriber 🙂
Very well explained and extremely well illustrated.
You have a future in this line.
Top vid mate very well explained 😎
The only two links a good gambling degenerate will ever need.
If you're a sports bettor, I made a Discord Server to come shoot the shit, talk trash and make picks with us over on Discord: https://discord.gg/HyVj6Tx
If you're a table gambler you've got to join Marcus and Jeff's group: https://www.facebook.com/groups/1794556130566057/?ref=bookmarks
so you are looking at the percentages someone is pumping compared to what the line is when you bet. I'm having some issues with this. Usually the closing line averages out to 0 on expected value?
Is this spreadsheet available for download? It's hard to read the formulas in the video. Thanks
BTW on your last slide to convert implied probability to the money line, doesn't the formula for the favorite need to be multipled by -1?
Hi Mr. Stanton,
I was wondering if I could get your assistance on something as it pertains to this video, would be greatly appreciated
Good morning, hope all is well.
I just watched this video of yours which I must say is very informative however I am curious about something as it pertained to your Excel sheet
The ML/Implied Odds that you had filled in which were "your" odds, are those odds from the very moment your particular sportsbook puts them out?
I know you said the odds for 538 were from the morning, so are you comparing your odds and their odds from the moment the market opens?
Second,
Do you gauge the value on the games solely based on your/530 odds when the market first opens or do you edit the ML/Odds fields throughout the day as the lines shift?
If you could help explain that to me, that would be greatly appreciated.
Thank you
how do u get implied pro with college football?
Where are you getting the "Your Prob" number?
Can you make a video of how you predict the winning percentage of a single game??
i know 538 is good for mlb, nba, etc.. but where is a good source to get probabilities for NHL games
can you share your spreadsheet with the formulas in there? you scroll too fast for me to see the formulas in the bars. also, would love to be able to just copy and paste the MLs and my probability instead of having to do this every time
Do you trust 538 lines against pinny’s line? Also are these the no vig probabilities or is the juice included ?
Really hoping for a calculator for spreads and over/unders!
Could you make a calculator to do this for spreads? I imagine it’s pretty similar but it would be a great help! Thanks!
Hi Arch, At the 5:58 mark, you fill in values to the "Your Prob" column and refer to the odds for those teams and the numbers are different from the implied probability…you say "538 thinks that 54% of the time TB will win….Where did you get that 54% from? Thanks in advance.
Can you make a video on how to find expected value in points spreads?
Hi Arch! There is an error with the parenthesis at 4:16. It should be ((-1*ML)/(-1*ML+100))*100. The way you put it, it makes 0.0058…
BTW, great videos! Thanks
The one you have already made is different from his video strategy
Hi Arch I would like for you to make a video on the 444 craps and the look up the video for the don't pass / pass betting strategy by the same guy Al the craps professor
Thanks
Nice. If and when Florida gets a sportsbook I feel like I'll be ready. Also have you heard of Shark Roulette? It's apparently an online roulette deal that uses cryptocurrency to play. There are no limits and you can bet as low as $.01. It's also the single zero type. If you do more roulette videos in the future you may want to check it out.