The Racing Dudes team goes LIVE to discuss the latest 2022 Kentucky Derby (G1) news and updates. Who’s in? Who’s out? Who’s our win pick? Tell us YOUR Kentucky Derby winner in the Comments section!
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Video Rating: / 5
The Racing Dudes team discuss and debate who they think will be the most overbet and/or “wise guy” horses in the 2022 Kentucky Derby (G1). Who’s YOUR choice for the most overbet or “wise guy” horse? Tell us in the Comments section!
https://RacingDudes.com is the destination site for all things horse racing and sports betting. Whether it be free winners, expert insider picks, up-to-the-minute trackside weather reports, or multiple podcasts and livestream videos that provide only the best content for gamblers of all skill levels, never make another wager without visiting the Racing Dudes first!
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"Taiba is the most talented horse in the race"
It is indeed disturbing that a supposedly intelligent mature male is capable of making such a definitive statement regarding a colt that has only made 2 starts.
'The consensus is Messier is a top 3 horse" How so by friendly experts?
If my recollection is correct, Messier rocketed to the top of the division with a 15L win over Cabo Spirit in the Bob Lweis. Which other colts have destroyed Cabo Spirit? Well, let's see what the colt facts reflect:
Pinehurst defeated Coba Spirit by13L
Forbidden Kingdom defeated Coba Spirit by 20 1/2L
Tiz The Bomb defeated Coba Spirit by 10L
Given the above. It is safe to conclude that the collective assertion that Messier is atop 3 colt was not based on his 15L defeat of Cabo Spirit but rather on the Beyer he was assigned. You note I used the word assigned and not earned. Horses earn finishing positions. They do not earn Beyers. Those are assigned by humans using flawed and self-serving formulas that are not developed to include pertinent fact
F FL Derby"UAE Derby horses never run well". A fact check is required.
Master of Hounds finished 2nd in the UAE Derby and 5th in KD.
The comment regarding Summer Is Tomorrow is grossly disrespectful. The colt is American bred who was Europe and did his early training in Ireland and England. Surprisingly he he never made a start in wither country. All his starts have been on the dirt in Dubai. He is very fast colt whose first routing start was in the 9 1/2F UAE Derby. He led that race on a slow surface not conducive to speed. Just refer to the performance of Life Is Good in the DWC.
For a colt with such speed, he possesses a surprisingly calm demeanor off the track. I watched him being given a bath and he never moved despite repeated human contact with his body. This colt should be able to putt opponents to sleep whilst on the lead. I consider him a very dangerous entrant. To suggest he will finish closer to last is possible but Highly unlikely
Zozos had 1 routing start before finishing 2nd in the 91/2 LA Derby. Summer Is Tomorrow never made a start beyond 7F before finishing in 9 1/2F UAE Derby.
Tabia sole start was over 6F. He won the 9F S A Derby.
Charge It made two 8F start before finishing 2nd in the FL Derby
The above 3 have combined for 8 starts. Summer Is Tomorrow never made a start beyond 7F before in his first 6 of 7 starts. He has more foundation than the above 3. He has finished in the runner up position a major KP prep similar to 2 above.
Why is it more likely that SIT will finish at the back of the field but none of the above?
Crown Pride deserve the attention he has been getting. Why?
He is the youngest entrant in the field. (May foal)
His 4 starts have been at 4 different tracks
He has won over 9F (twice) 9 1/2F (Once)
He has race in 2 different countries
He didn't change lead in the stretch of the UAE Derby and didn't show any sign of fatigue late. In fact, was stronger at the end.
The gentleman attempting g to ridicule Crown Price needs to the 6th place finish of Japan's Master Fencer in the 2019 KD. His handling in that race left a lot to be desired. Master Fencer's resume
is nothing like that of Crown Pride. If he finished6th u der a poor ride. I wouldn't for a moment be dismissive of Crown Pride who is also a great grandson of Sunday Silence.
The KD is not an Equine Beauty contest. Charge It physical imposing stature ins't a reason to wage him. Mine That Bird was pint size gelding that blew away the KD field.
Tood Pletcher KD record:
Total starters – 59
Total wins – 2
Total on the board finishers – 10 (includes 4th)
Total off the board finishers 49
The record above isn't one of a trainer that is capable of winning he KD with an entrant with only a MSW victory in the win and 3 starts. Place Malice, Dynamic One and Sainthood to cite a few, had only a MSW victory in the win column. They all finished amongst the also ran. Charge It will have to beat me.
The notion that Classic Causeway will be on the lead needs to be revisited: Why?
1st start – On the lead whilst being tracked by Brigadier General
2nd start – On the lead whilst being tracked by Stellar Tap
3rd start – raced in 4th behind Howling Time.
4th start – On the lead whilst pressed by Little Vic.
5th start – On the lead whilst being tracked by Grantham
6th start – On the lead whilst being tracked by Simplification.
On 5 of the 6 occasions CC was on the lead, it was gainst modest opponents. The best oppponent he has led is Simplifiction. And that was a HD to 1/2L. There are faster horses than CC in the likely field who have led top classs opponents. CC will not smell the lead. He is just not fast enough to do same.
you guys dont mention modonegal. he had the fastest wood memorial since 2005, and proved he can take the dirt. he wont be a favorite, will be a decent price with a shot. cyber knife is the brother of your favorite taiba, he probably beats your taiba, taiba ran against small fields and nobody.
Simplification is the other 20-1 with a punchers chance.
Better not let Classic Causewy do this .
https://youtu.be/NLRdVaC_kWQ
C.D alot kinder to turf horses than GP.
Great show but its like watching Japanese show,oh japanese show huh,My Hunch Pick now Thanks Guys is Crown Pride
You want Mud?? Check out Kathleen O's amazing maiden race!
awesome show. I agree with the top 4 based on analysis but, something flukey always happens in the derby. when is the last time the top 3 betting favorites got home? my guess is justify or nyquist years. For that reason i think one of zozos, cyberknife, tiz the bomb or charge it hit the board.
I like Zozos at that price.EPICENTER broke track record going 1-31/6 and Zozos was right with him in his first big race.Hr needs to draw 2-12 post.l'm tossing Calif.(slow down Andy beat messier) and if Taiba is that good so be it! As far as a horse that I think will definitely be in money- MO DONEGAL. Off subject Pappacap in Pat Day mile
some really strong opinions about tiz the bomb. I've watched a few resected analysts list him as a live longshot but, you all have got him last. Someone will be off here.
Charge It will be my Travers horse but not next Saturday. I’m leaning towards the “it” horse from the west, now it’s the other Baffteen horse Messier
Do you think Charge It can overcome how green he is and hit the board (as long as he doesnt run up another horse's ass like White A)
Tiz blew the start and you guy's cant forgive him even after he came in first in a mile on dirt and ran a 1 1/18 faster than Epicenter. Thats just hilarious. McPeek said Tiz is in better physical shape than Smile Happy. Brian is the most underrated jockey in the United States.
Just to let you know Crown Pride worked 59.1
Taiba
When was the last time a horse went from six furlong maiden winner to Grade One mile and a quarter winner two starts later?
I think if this was the covid year where the Derby was at the end of the summer, Charge It would be a real threat. I agree he's talented but needs a couple more races. I could see Charge It being like Highly Motivated. Certainly a good horse but probably overvalued.
CHARGE IT. GETS ALL MY MONEY IN THE BELMONT !!
I want no part of Messier to Win. He is a great horse, just not a winner in the derby. Too many better horses that want to win.
Every year there is something crazy happen in the Derby. This year I predict it will be Taiba. Why not? One of these years it will be a horse with 2 starts that wins, I think it's this year.
Mo Donegal
Not cool how y’all put Barber Road on this thumbnail!! Lol
Somewhat unrelated but I believe Taiba has 3 strikes using John White Strike System. Also heard on a podcast Messier has messed up rear leg action
Cyberknife will be overbet. Already taking action in some late Futures.