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In this video, a full-time data analyst outlines how to create a profitable NFL sports betting model using Excel. Matt uses Excel all the time and is a pro at it – he’s also a sharp sports bettor. So he pairs together his love for sharp sports betting with excel modeling in this video on creating an NFL sports betting model. You can also use Python to create your sports betting NFL model. Home vs away record is one variable that you can use in your NFL model, as well as weather, consensus lines from sharp sportsbooks like Pinnacle, and more.
Many sports betting models include regression analytics, and the most common type of sports betting model is based on linear regression and looking for correlation factors. Adding sports gambling models to your toolbox as a sharp bettor can help you identify unique mathematical edges in sports betting that others are not seeing. This is the key to creating a profitable NFL betting strategy – finding edge in areas where others are not looking. The goal of this video is to help you increase your sports betting analytical skills to win money for the long haul as a sharp sports gambler.
Again, Matt is a full-time data analyst at one of the most prestigious companies. He spends his free time as a sports betting math guy and a sharp sports bettor. He is located in Virginia and uses the regulated Virginia sportsbooks, such as Barstool, WynnBet, BetMGM, DraftKings and Fanduel. The Virginia sports betting scene is blowing up!
Video Rating: / 5
I know this is just an example to prove out how to create a model – but in practice I’d think that when you are running the regression, you’d want to use the DVOA of the teams at the time of the game, right? Because they also get updated based on the outcome of each game. As opposed to retroactively applying a current teams DVOA against past results?
Great video, I was wondering how using multiple stats would work using regression. I’m currently making a cbb model and this helped a lot!
Where did you find the data for the score outcomes
What do you do for a living? I’m about to start a job in finance and it’s cool seeing these Excel functions utilized for sports betting
Hey Alex, great content man. I’ve got experience with financial modeling and have been trying to find a way to create a model for sports betting, so this series will be so helpful. What exactly is DVOA?