if this video I will show you how to predict over 2.5 goals with 98% winning accuracy
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I’m revisiting the xG model in this video, using the fixtures from The EFL Championship on 22/02/22 as examples.
In a previous video on xG it appears that some of the formulas were incorrect meaning we didn’t get much of a difference between the xG odds and the Poisson Odds. I was a little surprised by this and it took one of our members to point out that it was because I’d messed it up! Apologies!
So in this video we see a much bigger swing, particularly in two or three of the matches which certainly makes for interesting viewing and gives food for thought when using goals as a measure for creating odds.
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Where did you get the xG and xGA data for championship teams for current season home and away seperated?
Cheers for the update that seems alot better with the differences. Be interesting to see which one comes out more accurate over the long run as they both have ups and downs with using it. With the results today if using xG it would have only given 1 more win in match results bets (2xG wins to 1goals win) and score dutching was also 1 extra win (2xG wins to 1goals win). So not much difference that could have went either way was the Bristal v Coventry match that was the extra win.
I have been mainly using the correct score dutching was getting lots of wins with it at start but been around even the last week and a bit so still ahead. Done a few for value odds for match results but haven't had much luck with that. But see you did really well on weekend in the championship so over long run it should come out on top. It's a powerful tool I believe just got see long term results to see whats the best way to take advantage of it.
Predictions still coming? Matches starting shortly!