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We’ve had Expected Goals (xG), we’ve had Expected Assists (xA), now we have Expected Threat (xT) – but what is it? What does it tell us? How can you spot it in-game?
Written by Tom Worville, illustrated by Craig Silcock
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Additional footage sourced from freestockfootagearchive.com
#xG #xA #FootballStats
Video Rating: / 5
Could xT be applied to player combinations, to find the best midfielder partnerships? That would be super interesting
I think vincious jr has the best xt in the world from carring the ball not passing it
Why does xT on the right side has higher value? Does the stat bend because of Mo Salah?
Surely an easier way to do this is just adding together the vector components in the direction of the opposite goal of players moving with the ball or passing the ball?
Where do i find xT for free?
Football is in desperate need of stats.
It makes you so tired people constantly come with total goals only. Its just nonsense and more away from the real picture than anything else.
We lack shot conversion rate, shot accuracy, pass accuracy just everything. Averages are the most important.
I dont give a damn if player x scored 10 more goals than player y, but needed 100 more shots.
American sports record everything since decades, which also makes it way easier to compare eras. In football thats not possible at all. You seriously have people comparing peles goal total to someone else…… Its ridiculous.
Feels like these modern stats have been introduced to gauge just how much better Leo Messi is than everyone else
I thought I was watching a Tifo IRL video and was waiting for Joe to say something in a silly voice, but it never came. 😔
Stat merchants are ruining the game
Unless I missed it, this video didn’t mention that the values are determined by 4 “iterations.” Meaning the probability of scoring after 4 “actions.” This makes much more sense as to why your own corner flag has ANY xT at all; it is based on the next four actions 👍🏻
this is exactly what i looove about soccer!
Packing is still my fav but it never really progressed in the last 5 years
Really want football to bring in Basketball's concept of player gravity. It's always talked about e.g. players who draw away defenders in relation to space etc. but I'd love for it to be more specifically/statistically done
I'm sure someone gave Joe this script but he himself have no clue and doesn't care at all about what he is talking about.
Where can I get xT data?
Hey Team, Can you do piece on why broadcast blackout happen in england and why not all footballs matches broadcasted in england. @tifofootball
A couple of issues jump out immediately.
First is that this doesn't seem to take into account where the opponents and team-mates are. You could pass the ball forwards to a team-mate who receives it and then is mugged by the 3 opponents surrounding him. Making such a pass is a bad decision, but with this metric would count as 'good' because there are many other similar forward passes that increase threat. Similarly, a crowded winger switching play to a team-mate in space but in line has made a good decision but wouldn't get any kudos from this.
Second is, when compiling all this into a player, ignoring their fails makes it meaningless. Always going for risky passes that if successful are certain goals, but generally failing and hence not being counted will inflate a player's 'worth'.
Well, Grealish is a great player, but i suspect his numbers will fall this season.
Why? He’s no longer going to be carrying the ball from midfield to attack, he’l recieve the ball higher as he’s in a more dominant team. It’ll also be harder to create chances as the opposition will be more defensive.
Police gave me same tagline, i put it with my other awards such as my asbo of the year and chavs chav award.
I can see a lot of extra stats stemming from this: Defenders xXT (reject upon XT), overlap of the XT with the opponents XT to comprehend better how each team is performing in a span of 10 for example minutes, Conversion upon XT to evaluate attackers etc.