In order to make a sound prediction on how a game will play out, it may not be a bad idea to learn how expectation works. While useful in Monte Carlo Simulation models, the general concepts of expectation can be applied to all types of forecasting methods.
Expectation is the attempt to measure what the average outcome of a statistic would be if the event(in this example, a game) was played an infinite number of times. While an overall expectation calculation can be extremely complex and sophisticated, the examples I use in this video are very basic and introductory level to help you understand what exactly calculatiing expectation entails.
Please remember this channel is a tout free safe space, not only do I not tolerate touts, I do not tolerate speaking positively about touts.
For those of you curious, I finished the night up about : https://i.imgur.com/VKCB8rO.png
This video demonstrates how I use my in-game MLB dashboard I developed to project live win probabilities for each team. These win probabilities use a simple system of round robin matrices from my monte carlo run data dump to estimate live win probabilities.
A Monte Carlo simulation is a popular method to assist gamblers with their bets. The benefit of a Monte Carlo simulation allows a person to generate theoretical means for matchups based on the statistics inputted into the model. However the downside is that these simulations can take time to run, especially the larger your sample size.
Projecting real time in-game win probability does not have the luxury of being able to wait on monte carlo simulation run enough times to be statistically stable. Therefore you have to get a bit creative on how to estimate in game win probabilities for live betting purposes or to just simply see where your bet stands. If you can store your monte carlo simulation data, you can reference it and then use matrix round robins to generate estimated win/cover percentages.
Wish you gave us the sites to pull this data from… every model making 101 video I've found is not a 101 at all and starts off at a more advanced level than beginner
Your content is so good. I am learning a lot from you. Thanks.
My base level expectation for this video was to learn how to setup a Monte Carlo Simulation… #disappointed
This is what I have been looking for🙌🏾
Through years of researching and practising, i finally find a method of buying pick 3 ,which can boost your odds and eliminate unnesseary numbers.It reqiures lots of statistics and understanding the 49% 65% odds. English is not my first language but i believe I can explain them clearly to sb I can trust.
To predict 10 nums in Three Drums, one actually don't have to pay attenton to them all. just 2 numbers are enough.
I anticipate to know sb who shares the great passion and interest in pick 3 or 5.
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Great Video!!! What would you consider a proper metric for the same analysis for soccer betting?
Hello Sports Betting Truth,
Would Bayes' Theorem be a good approach when it comes to pace? Thanks.
subscribing just for more "expect" jokes
In another video I found on Monte Carlo sims, when calculating the dimmed score, the function was =norm.inv(rand(),mean, Stan dev). I’m just learning excel and was wondering what/why the parentheses after the RAND function?
This is real news America
Hey great vid but I can’t find where you pulled the POS stats from
Great Info Im currently a sophomore college student and always had interests in sports and recently got into sports betting and am looking to take it more seriously after watching a couple of your videos and doing some extended research on just betting in general. Im looking to start a model and after more research the monte carlo simulations really caught my eye. My question is what are some of the cons in using the monte carlo simulation when compared to other models and what would those models be? (could be a new video idea)
Why do you have so much empty space on the screen? Why not offer a closer view so people with small screens and bad eyesight can actually get an idea what is happening. Otherwise, very good delivery.
Hello again, I do have another question. In a couple of your videos you like to relate the value you find back to league averages. What if you related it back to the teams average instead? Does that make the stat less viable, or is that something you'd have to trial and error as well. Thanks in advance
This is AWESOME thanks for sharing!!!
This is awesome content my friend, you should consider doing a course, I certainly pay for this type of knowledge. Keep the good work!
great video
Such a great video. Explained really well. Love the channel. Keep it up brother❤️love from Australia
I need this bus I don't have time to do it myself…
So, are player stats figured in any of this?
This is yet another example of why I shouldn't have slept through math class
How much are you down?
How predict pseudo trackside game 1to 12 numbers
Do you live in DFW area? I see the TCU jersey in the background and in one video you mentioned watching the Rangers. I live in DFW area too.
my bookie is gonna try and shut down http://www.sportsmodelanalytics.com for sure before he goes broke.. lol
hopefully my bookie never figures out that i literally just follow picks from sportsmodelanalytics dot com
Can you share how you got updated scores by hitting the, "refresh," button on your spreadsheet?
God bless sportsmodelanalytics dot com, lol. Their pick cashed for me huge
hopefully my bookie never figures out that i literally just follow picks from sportsmodelanalytics dot com
is sportsmodelanalytics.com ever even wrong about the outcome of a game?
cool i'm getting to know your channel now, i'm having difficulty i use google sheets to do my basketball projections but when i play game results into the spreadsheet it is only upright do you know how to change that ???
Being on holiday, I decided to create a Monte Carlo Simulator for Wild Card Weekend, I used an adjust team score as the seed for the randomizer and Std Dv of the two teams past year's scores. It was trending towards all covering, except for New Orleans. Although it was a great diversion from all of the left-overs, I wondered if it really offered any information.
What are your thoughts regarding using Monte Carlo Simulations and in which situation would it be? Would you consider doing Youtube video?
Do you live in DFW area? I see the TCU jersey in the background and in one video you mentioned watching the Rangers. I live in DFW area too.
Will you share any spreadsheet?
how do you simulate the games? What are these simulations based on?
Never knew you were a jew gn