Today is Opening Day 2021 for Major League Baseball and In this video I explain why baseball/MLB is such a dangerous sport to bet on for the average sports bettor and why anyone who bets on baseball needs to exercise extreme caution. However, unlike other professional sports, I also believe betting on Major League Baseball has a much higher chance for a high upside and rewarding payoff for those willing to put in the hard work it takes to build a good betting model to bet baseball with.
Video Rating: / 5
Baseball is the hardest to live bet
Did your model beat closing lines? Any idea what those 60 units won would be vs closing lines?
Remember one big advantage of betting baseball ….in many games there is a 5 cent line instead of a 10 cent line like football (with some sportsbooks).. EG -105. -105…instead of -110…-110.
Therefore, you can win with less of a percentage of winners….in other words $1050 to win $1000…instead if $1100 to win $1000.
Please make model tutorials because I am not a super computer savvy individual
What was your average stake per bet on MLB last year?
Why the switch to Python from R?
How Do you factor that they change the ball? Are they going back in a "pitcher" game or is still a "batter game "
What Sportsbooks or apps are you using?
Do you believe a statistical model can be made for any sport, such as soccer or and individual sport like tennis?
Следующий раз включи субтитр на русском.
Когда будет футбол?
Caution against building your own player forecasts. You're probably not going to be able to build them any more accurate than pecota, or zips or steamer. Steamer and zips are public. I haven't built baseball models for betting, but for other ones I've built it saves a whole lot of time to just incorporate those projection systems. Then you can layer pitchfx data and statcast data on top of those. In fact, I believe some of the new baseball projection systems out there are starting to incorporate those so it may be worth checking on. You probably already use it, but it may also be worth using the lahmen database for modeling in game situations (if you want to bet live). Anyway, wish I had time to join you on this journey. Good luck.
Looking forward to the baseball vids. Has always been my goal to properly extract the right info from the raw data. Started with college basketball but baseball has always been difficult for me in terms of utilizing the right data.
Don't even tell these guys about betting College Baseball right now I have power ratings on 290 active programs.
Over betting baseball cuz of so many games.
Lolol I gotta watch it later. Happy Opening Day!
YouTube is shutting your channel down….April Fool's!
I think you should preach to people that just cuz you use bankroll management doesn't mean you will be a consistent winner. So many channels preach bankroll management but don't tell people all that does make your money last longer.
Thanks for the video SBT. Are you going to be posting your baseball picks on your website when your model is ready? Thanks again man and I love your content.
Love your disposition. I'm trying to adopt a lot of your style. It's free, composed, and exudes obvious experience. …Keep up, brother!
Good video