In this video I discuss books about sports betting and whether or not any of them are worth reading, and if any of them have strategies in them that can help you win money.
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Are there any sports betting books you recommend or think are trash?
The most influential book I ever read on sports betting was “Conquering Risk” by Elihu Feustel. It was published in the 2000’s, so the information is dated. But back then, it was the first sports betting book that discussed math concepts like maximum likelihood and sigmoid equations, which are the foundation of basic machine learning algorithms.
You are as always quite right. Sometimes too complicated model will get you too close to the model bookies are using and it’s hard to find an edge this way.
I also agree there are close to none soft markets in US, but as European I still believe there are soft markets in Europe, where sports betting is not that popular and in some countries even forbidden. This way many local markets do not have enough volume, because of lack of interest from foreigners.
I think that if you try to apply some of your CB models to European basketball, they may be more profitable than you think.
A great resource is Michael shackleford or the wizard of odds he analyzes the math side you will never beat the books but he’s a smart person I liked gambling 101 &102
Do you have discord? Any type of communication? I believe you 200%.
Limiting downside is just as important as maximizing the upside
One of your best videos!!
I would recommend these:
Andrew Mack – Statistical Sports Models in Excel, Statistical Sports Models in Excel Volume 2
Joseph Buchdahl – Monte Carlo or Bust: Simple Simulations for Aspiring Sports Bettors
there are plenty of good podcasts. i find them useful to survey the state of the art and know what your competitors are doing. rufus peabody leaks good info on his process, tom brownlee tells you most of what he's up to, spanky tells you exactly how he sees things. risk of ruin is very insightful. the less useful ones try to be educational, they just rehash basics over and over.
also, once you've found guys worth listening to, you can search for podcast episodes of them being interviewed
Sports betting is a roller coaster ride. More downs than ups. Long term success is nearly impossible. Just got to get lucky every once in a while and hit a big one every now and then. I win a little each year. Im not a big $ better. I try to win 500 to 1000 a year.