The odds of picking a perfect bracket for the NCAA men’s basketball championship tournament are a staggering less than one in 9.2 quintillion according Jeff Bergen, mathematics professor at DePaul University. Basketball experts weigh in with insight into March Madness and analysis even before teams are chosen and ranked for the tournament on Selection Sunday.
Props.com dives into the opening odds and betting action for the NCAA Basketball Championship Game between North Carolina and Kansas. Where is the early money landing?
Read the full betting action report: https://props.com/college-basketball-championship-game-odds/
Why the heck did my teacher send me here
I'm possible
So much for that #1 seed never losing to a #16 seed eh? Haha
Virginia (1) lost to UMBC (16) LMAOLMAOLMAO
such a cool video. thanks for posting
Curious to see the math that gets you 1 in 128 billion. Even given that you correctly pick all four 1-seeds to the sweet sixteen (52.6% chance), and the 2- and 3-seeds to all win their first game (77.4% and 48.8% chances, respectively), and the rest of the games are coin flips, I'm getting close to 1 in 700 trillion. Now, sure, you can say that it's easier to pick a 4 to beat a 13, or a 2 to advance to the sweet 16, which would lower it, but it's also not a guarantee a 1 will make the sweet 16 or a 2/3 will win their first game. So from 700 trillion to 128 billion seems like quite a jump (takes at least 2^12 off the estimate). I guess I'm saying even 128 billion seems optimistic.
why 128 billion? can someone show me the math?
Holy fuck that man is cockeyed
I feel that this is the year I can do it
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Professor, your math is wrong. You exaggerated the odds by forgetting that half the field is eliminated after each round, severely limiting the number of possible successive combinations. Therefore the real probability is: 2^32 + 2^16 + 2^8 + 2^4 + 2^2 + 2^1 = 4,295,033,110 or just 1 in 4.295 billion. Time to head to Vegas!
I'll pick a perfect bracket lol
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…where the heck does he get the number 128,000,000,000? It's like he picked it at random…
The professor's analysis is correct; but almost everyone who summarizes or quotes him (including the DePaul Newsroom) is derptastic.
Each game is not a coin flip. While there may be 9.2 x 10^18 possible outcomes, not all are equally likely. The true "odds" are higher or lower, depending on the probability of each outcome selected.
Of course, the odds of just picking the winner of the National Championship are much smaller…though few, if any, would have picked UConn last year. This year, however, is it best just to put Kentucky (IF they don't lose in the conference tournament?)
The *IMPROBABILITY of the PERFECT BRACKET
I recognize my mistake… I thought about it way too long… That's why he is a professor and I aspire to be what he is eventually. Thanks, sthpk81.
ITS SCIENCE
I'm surprised nobody challenged his math… It is not correct as I see it… The odds for each game in the first round are 1 of 2, so 2^32 works for those games, but the next round would be 1 of 4 causing you to raise 4^16 and so on… I think I'm right, and the odds are actually worse than he explains except basketball knowledge would still play a role, you are picking in a tournament format not just 63 true-false questions.