Expected Goals: How xG Works to Improve Football Predictions Massively

Expected Goals: How xG Works to Improve Football Predictions Massively

Expected Goals: How xG Works to Improve Football Predictions Massively

I use maths to beat the bookies! Can you accurately predict goals in football? Check out my guide to Expected Goals to improve your predictions massively during Football premier leagues. Expected goals (xG) is a revolutionary football metric, which allows you to evaluate team and player performance. In this video, I’ll explain what is xG in football & how is the statistic calculated?

0:34 What Expected Goals (xG) means.
2:03 How xG ratings work and are calculated.
5:15 How to use Expected Goals ratings.

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This video demonstrates how you can use expected goals stats to improve your success rate in football prediction.
Video Rating: / 5

20 Comments

  1. Vanja Uzelac

    How do you calculate xG in a single match?

    For example, one team has 7 shots, 3 on target, score 1 goal and has xG 1.45?

  2. Kobe

    I like the idea but when you have a game as unpredictable as football you can't narrow it down to one single metric

  3. LA Prankster

    Does xG take into account the speed and the accuracy of the shot itself? After all, a shot hit towards the top corner has a higher chance of scoring than a shot hit straight at the keeper.

  4. Han Tran

    how did you do it can you share with me , thank you

  5. Peter Bergman

    Anyone who watched the Spain v Sweden game would have expected at least six goals. It ended 0-0.

  6. Melaku M

    i watched all your videos turns out you are a loser and dick head…

  7. Abdullah Ali

    Lovely video. Thanks for clarifying

  8. MESSIVINICIURJR MESSIVINICIURJR

    This video how to I guess xg goals in football matches

  9. Jovanni

    Hi Caan, perfect timing with this video! I was wondering if you could explain what “Average Total Match Goals” means for both teams?

  10. si coy

    I was hoping to see more about shot maps in this video what do you think about them? are they useful or is it just a gimmick that looks nice

  11. Robbie Scrivener

    Something most people do not think about and a trap many fall in to is if a match has been profiled for 3 goals is that these goals can happen at any point. Just because a game can go 1-1 inside the first 15 min that does not always indicate a goal fest it is just that the games quota of goals was scored earlier than expected. On numerous occasions I have profiled a match for 3 goals or O2.5 and it has been 0-0 at HT but still finished with 3 or more goals. This happened in the most extreme circumstances between Gorodeya v Belshina on Friday which finished 2-1 and all goals were scored in injury time.

  12. Ethan O

    For me, it only shows the probability of the player scoring after the event has occurred. Therefore, how can you use it in game if it calculates the probability after the fact?

  13. Anita Kanwar

    I want to start learning football trading. I'm a beginner.

  14. MrBibibip

    Does anyone know if its possible to make good money betting on bet365 ? I lose all the time.Should I stop depositing ?

  15. Cole UK

    The notion of xG is an intriguing prospect but one that leaves me skeptical. I really struggle to be persuaded that football predictions can be accurately made through the use of largely methodical approaches that are based on mathematics and/or science. In my view, there are surely far too many variables with potential to influence the game that prevent reliance on what is essentially a form of probability being effective to a significant degree.

  16. Anil A

    Thanks CB for encouraging me to make predictions. Based on your suggested methodology – I am selecting these 4 conditions for overnight sport.

    Date: 7JUL20 (Today)
    England Premier League
    Game: Watford vs Norwich
    Condition 1: Under 4 goals for both teams combined
    Condition 2: Over 9 corner kicks for both teams combined

    Game: Arsenal vs Leicester
    Condition 3: Under 4 goals for both teams combined
    Condition 4: Over 9 corner kicks for both teams combined

    $100 investment will return around $400!!

    *18+ Age, comply with local laws, transact responsibly.

  17. zxX-_lucas_-Xxz Ps4

    Nice video raab. Have you got a strategy we could buy off you

  18. Smoke Me A Kipper I'll Be Back For Breakfast

    I'll check out this angle for selecting matches

Comments are closed