Ryan Wilson joins CBS Sports HQ to break down his latest NFL Mock Draft.
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Former NFL Scout: Caleb Williams is a Bust
January 10, 2024 | Daniel Kelly | Articles
Reading Time: 3 minutes
I’ve now evaluated USC quarterback (QB) Caleb Williams in every snap he took in 2022 and 2023 and I’ve written approximately 11,850 words reflecting on him in articles.
The takeaway: Williams is too undisciplined, moody, and immature to ever realize his potential.
Yes, he is loaded with God-given raw arm strength, and elite ability to create and extend (which is the draw to him), but he’s underdeveloped in the finer points of the position. His skillset doesn’t translate well to the next level ⎯the NFL game is about quick time to throw, precise downfield ball placement, and ball security.
The only box he checks is ball security improving from 35 pass breakups (2.5 avg.) in 2022 to 15 in 2023 (1.25 avg.).
2023 went sideways
Williams won the 2022 Heisman Trophy, but it amounted to a second-round grade watching him through my ‘NFL-colored glasses.’ He tended to hold the ball too long and to lock in with receivers.
The first three games of 2023 (San Jose State, Nevada, and Stanford) gave me optimism he had improved, but then ASU happened. He was excellent against Colorado but mediocre against the University of Arizona.
And then things went off the rails.
The true litmus test would be against ranked competition.
What happened?
USC faced Notre Dame, Utah, CAL, Washington, Oregon, and UCLA and dropped five out of six and Williams’ became unglued.
Concerns
1. Downward trajectory ⎯Williams regressed in 2023.
2. NFL Expectations ⎯will be crazy high. The expectations alone will cause him to be a bust.
3. Time to throw ⎯Pro Football Focus recorded Williams at 3.44 seconds in 2022 and 3.21 seconds in 2023. Williams was sacked 63 times (2022-2023). Only seven NFL QBs are over 3 seconds (NEXT GEN STATS). Bears’ QB Justin Fields was the slowest (3.23 seconds). Fields was sacked 99 times (2022-2023).
4. Glorifed system QB ⎯I did an independent study this season, Williams’ best completion percentages came throwing 44-62% short passes. His three worst games (55.9%-57.5%) were fewer short passes.
5. Not a big game QB ⎯Williams was 2-9 against ranked teams the past two seasons.
6. Fumbles ⎯ 32 fumbles in 36 games.
7. Post-game conduct ⎯refused to shake hands with Utah and refused to talk to reporters after the UCLA loss.
8. Nature ⎯Wants to get out of structure as a passer and get reckless as a runner (increased injury risk). He reverts to locking in with receivers. Additionally, he talked down about a fan calling him a “sheep,” and he does unpredictable and uncensored things ranging from painting obscenities on his fingernails to jumping into the stands and crying in his mother’s arms.
9. Inexperienced dealing with adversity ⎯According to Sports Illustrated (Nov. 28, 2023) Williams said, “I’ve never been in this situation, where I’m 7–5 and there are no playoff hopes at the end of the season. I’m dealing with it emotionally, dealing with it spiritually and physically. ”
10. Holiday Bowl ⎯USC bounced right back (same offensive line and defense) against No. 15 Louisville with QB Miller Moss who was making his first career start and he matched Williams’ USC high of six touchdown passes in a game.
#13 Caleb Williams 6-foot-1, 215 pounds
Daniel Kelly’s 2024 NFL Draft Grade: Fourth-Round (I wouldn’t select him)
2024 NFL Draft: QB7
Ceiling: Bottom tier ranked starter (17-32)
Projected by 99.3% of the NFL Draft Community to be a first-round pick as of January 10, 2024 (nflmockdraftdatabase.com)
How Does Caleb Williams’ Game Film Translate to the NFL? (7 games evaluated in 2022)
Pump the Brakes on Caleb Williams (7 games evaluated in 2022)
Game film reviewed (2023): SJSU, Nevada, Stanford, ASU, Colorado, Arizona, Notre Dame, Utah, CAL, Washington, Oregon, and UCLA (click to view games watched to form this evaluation)
2023 passing stats: 266 of 388 (68.6%) for 3,633 yards, 30 TD and 5 interceptions
please comment on the following offers I pulled out of the NFL Mock Draft Simulator for 1.2:
AZ 1.4, 1.27, 3.71, 390, 5.160, 2025 R4
ATL 1.8, 6.198
NYG 1.6, 2.47, 5.139, 6.184, 2025 R3
TN 1.7, 4.106
GB 2.41, 2.58, 3.88, 2025 R1
LV 1.13, 5.146, 7.224, 7.226, 2025 R3
Why not Harrison jr. this Year and next Year the Commanders go all in with a Trade for Shedeur Sanders.
Prime Time for a Decade, I would Love it, greetings from Germany 🏈
No way should the Bears trade with Washington without getting BOTH of their 2nd round picks in THIS draft. NO WAY
How is Caleb even considered in the 1st round
C'mon man,USC quarterbacks don't fare too well in the NFL. Unless you are maybe Carson Palmer if the bears trade Justin and draft Caleb Williams hit the eject button.
What would it take for MY DOLPHINS, to Trade up and get Maye??? Tua's not the Answer!!!!
Williams is a Prima-Dona, and hasn't played a down, yet. WTF. Plus, he got spanked/ Really bad days against good teams. N.D., Ect.
Peters saw 1st hand how the wow guy gets beat out by the right guy.
If the Bears don't draft a Qb everybody getting fired I say grab Yung Draco. He will be a perfect pick for Chicago and the combine hes going to prove it
I like the "dream" scenario…
Makes no sense for the pats to give up that much for a pick the bears would not make anyway problem with today no common sense
i dont want caleb if commanders are smart and they do pick a QB i want drake …
I was thinking the same logic, bears take Marvin Harrison and then some defense
YES!!!!! I’m a commander fan we need this!!
I hope patriots get Caleb 😮💨😮💨
Washington don’t need a qb it’s a wasted pick.
The disrespect on Penix Jr. is crazzzy. He's going top 5 no doubt when the process is over. Best deepball I've seen in college in a long time, and the guy is an intelligent winner. Only he and Pat Mahomes have had 2 consecutive 4,500 passing yard seasons in NCAA history.
Why trade up Commanders are number two take the best QB available that have to many holes to fill to give up draft capital.
I would much rather see the Falcons take Michael Penix Jr.